viernes, 25 de marzo de 2011

El FMI alerta sobre una próxima crisis financiera global

De acuerdo con expertos del Fondo Monetario Internacional, el sistema financiero global aún no está lo suficientemente preparado para combatir las crisis económicas como se esperaba que lo estuviera.

Los mega grupos financieros globales siguen representando un enorme riesgo para la estabilidad del sistema, constataron especialistas de esa institución en un informe publicado recientemente.

El Instituto Alemán de Investigación Económica (DIW) de Berlín llega a la misma conclusión respecto de Alemania.

El estudio del FMI tiene, por ahora, sólo carácter de debate, pero Olivier Blanchard, asesor del FMI, aprobó el informe., cuenta con la aprobación del asesor económico de esa institución, Olivier Blanchard, y del gerente del departamento de Mercado de Capitales del FMI, José Viñals.

Además, el estudio es contundente al indicar que todavía no se cuenta con un modelo a nivel internacional para reestructurar a los gigantes de la economía en caso de crisis, a fin de que no sea el contribuyente quien pague los platos rotos, sino los acreedores.


Es posible que el nuevo test de resistencia al que serán sometidos

Los grandes bancos pesan cada vez más sobre el sistema.los bancos por el nuevo organismo de vigilancia europeo EBA demuestre si sus finanzas verdaderamente están saneadas.

Hay 88 bancos, entre ellos, 13 bancos alemanes, que tendrán que ensayar un caso hipotético de recesión que se extiende hasta fines de 2012 y probar que no pierden demasiado capital propio.

A fines de junio se podrá contar con los resultados.

La primera prueba de resistencia, de acuerdo con expertos, no merece llevar ese nombre, ya que, hace un año, 91 instituciones bancarias no la aprobaron, pero sí lo hicieron los cuatro bancos que, poco tiempo después, llevaron a Irlanda al borde de la bancarrota.

Autor: Rolf Wenkel/ Cristina Papaleo
Editor: Enrique López Magallón,,14941048,00.html

"Right now we still don't know exactly what's hidden in the banks' balance sheets. We can only assume that because banks have been able to offload significant liabilities into so-called 'bad banks,' their balances are better off now than they were two years ago.",,14939720,00.html

"Wenn es die Idee war, als Krisenprävention die Anzahl der systemisch relevanten Institute herunterzufahren, dann ist das zumindest in Deutschland nicht gelungen", sagt Schrooten in ihrer Untersuchung.,,6479110,00.html

“The UK’s debt could deteriorate to a point that is inconsistent with an AAA rating”

MOODY’S has warned Chancellor George Osborne that the UK could lose its coveted AAA credit rating if his latest growth forecasts prove too optimistic.

Mr Osborne lowered his forecast for growth in gross domestic product – national output – this year and next year during Wednesday’s Budget, admitting that the recovery will be slower than thought until 2013.

This means the Conservative-led Coalition will need an economic rebound from 2013 onwards if it is to eliminate the Budget shortfall before the 2015 General Election.

However, the ratings agency cautioned that there was more chance that economic growth in Britain would lag behind, rather than exceed, the Chancellor’s predictions for 2013 onwards, thwarting his drive to cut the deficit.

Moody’s said: “Slower growth combined with weaker-than-expected fiscal consolidation could cause the UK’s debt metrics to deteriorate to a point that would be inconsistent with an AAA rating.”

Ratings agency Fitch made a similar statement on Wednesday.

Preserving Britain’s triple-A sovereign debt rating is a top economic priority for the coalition, which inherited a deficit greater than 10% of gross domestic product.

Mr Osborne’s fiscal plans are heavily constrained by forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility, an independent Government body that provides macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts.

Ya le habían bajado la calificación a Japón, unas semanas antes del Terremoto, el Tsunami y la fuga radiactiva.

La cosa esta muy espesa.

La Segunda Guerra Civil “Americana”.

Frente Sindical.

KARL ROVE: Labor's Desperate Last Stand Is On Full Display After Wisconsin Protests, Ohio Battle

Ohio's Governor Moves Against Unions

The reform goes further than Wisconsin's.

How To Read Karl Rove

Frente Recaudador GOP.

2012 Elections: Republican anxiety building over crop of candidates

Frente Propaganda Virtual Sucia.

Ind. prosecutor urged fake attack, resigns

…"a good opportunity for what's called a 'false flag' operation."

"If you could employ an associate who pretends to be sympathetic to the unions' cause to physically attack you (or even use a firearm against you), you could discredit the unions," Lam said in the e-mail.


The e-mail was sent the same day another Indiana law enforcement official tweeted a suggestion that police "use live ammunition" against protesters in the Wisconsin Capitol.

That official, Jeffrey Cox, was fired from his position as deputy state attorney general.

Frente del Deficit

It’s been called California’s other budget deficit.

And it certainly hasn’t had near the attention of the state’s $25.4 billion budget gap between revenue and spending commitments.
But it’s almost as dire.

California’s employer-paid Unemployment Insurance Fund is insolvent.

The fund had a deficit of $10.3 billion in 2010, a deficit that is growing to what the state projects will be a $13.4 billion hole this year.


Although California has by far the largest outstanding loan balance – more than double that of Michigan, the next closest state at $3.9 billion – it certainly is not alone.

As of March 21, in addition to California, 31 other states owed the federal government $35.5 billion.

Among states with multi-billion borrowings are New York at $3.6 billion, Pennsylvania at $3.5 billion, Illinois at $2.8 billion, North Carolina at $2.7 billion, Ohio at $2.5 billion, Florida at $2.2 billion, Indiana at $2.1 billion, New Jersey at $1.9 billion and Wisconsin at $1.6 billion.

Like California, for most states they’re suffering a double-whammy:

At the same time their unemployment insurance funds crater, so do their budgets.

California is one of 44 states and the District of Columbia projecting a budget shortfall for the fiscal year beginning July 1.

These shortfalls, as California is painfully aware, come on top of sizable budget holes in the current and previous fiscal years.

Nationwide in the fiscal year ending June 30, states posted a record $191 billion in cumulative budget shortfalls, according to a March 2011 report by the Washington, D.C. based Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.

The state Financial Control Board warned Thursday that this year's proposed cuts to New York City services are just the beginning, and residents should expect deeper reductions in the coming years.


The yearly report is prepared by the board's longtime staff of economists and analysts, and Sommer said he believes it is politically impartial.

But the findings did seem to bolster the agendas of at least two of the board's members: Bloomberg and Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who have argued that pension and benefit costs for government workers have become unsustainable.

The state and city comptrollers and three private citizens who are longtime members make up the rest of the board, which had veto power over the city budget following the fiscal crisis of the 1970s but now serves only an advisory role.

The city has said pension contributions, debt service, health care, court judgments and settlements are expected to grow almost 8 percent annually over the next five years, while other costs would grow less than 1 percent a year.


The board's analysis projects a $5.7 billion city budget shortfall in the fiscal year starting July 1, 2012, rising to a shortfall of more than $6 billion two years later.

That's about $1 billion more than the mayor's projections.

Bloomberg has been pushing state legislators to give the city the right to negotiate cutbacks to pensions, which are currently the domain of the state government.

Gov. Andrew Cuomo is proposing several measures to cut what he calls an unsustainable level of spending on the state workforce of 170,000. Among his targets: spending on pensions and retiree health care.

City Council votes to put off LAPD hiring

A three-month freeze is approved to help ease L.A.'s budget shortfall, but it reduces the number of sworn officers below the minimum the police chief says is necessary.,0,6372927.story?track=rss

The City Administrative Officer is projecting a budget deficit for the fiscal year beginning July 1, 2011 of $350 million.

However, this budget gap will most likely increase to $475 million due to a shortfall in projected revenue ($100 million per the Controller) and higher net pension contributions ($25 million).
This may be a low ball estimate as the City is pulling an Enron and “cooking the books.”

The City conveniently neglects to consider the costs associated with maintaining and repairing the City’s lunar cratered streets and its other infrastructure and with properly funding its two major pension plans, the Los Angeles City Employees Retirement System and the Fire & Police Pension Plans.

In the real world, the City’s budget deficit is north of $1 BILLION (23% of General Fund Revenues) when you factor in the real costs associated with our infrastructure (streets, sidewalks, street lights, parks, buildings, bridges, sewers, storm water systems, IT systems, etc.) and with the pension plans that are underfunded by $11.7 billion (64.6% funded) as of June 30,2011.

See “LA’s Billion Dollar Budget Gap” article.

The Mayor’s Investor Presentation just confirms that the City has no clue on how to solve the looming financial crisis: chronic deficits, a Third World Infrastructure, and massive unfunded pension liabilities.

Even more frightening, there are no details on how to approach or even solve the problem.

It is no wonder that many consider the City a junk credit. And what is even more amazing is that Moody’s, S & P, and Fitch rate the City as an investment grade credit.