viernes, 25 de marzo de 2011

El FMI alerta sobre una próxima crisis financiera global

De acuerdo con expertos del Fondo Monetario Internacional, el sistema financiero global aún no está lo suficientemente preparado para combatir las crisis económicas como se esperaba que lo estuviera.

Los mega grupos financieros globales siguen representando un enorme riesgo para la estabilidad del sistema, constataron especialistas de esa institución en un informe publicado recientemente.

El Instituto Alemán de Investigación Económica (DIW) de Berlín llega a la misma conclusión respecto de Alemania.

El estudio del FMI tiene, por ahora, sólo carácter de debate, pero Olivier Blanchard, asesor del FMI, aprobó el informe., cuenta con la aprobación del asesor económico de esa institución, Olivier Blanchard, y del gerente del departamento de Mercado de Capitales del FMI, José Viñals.

Además, el estudio es contundente al indicar que todavía no se cuenta con un modelo a nivel internacional para reestructurar a los gigantes de la economía en caso de crisis, a fin de que no sea el contribuyente quien pague los platos rotos, sino los acreedores.

……………..

Es posible que el nuevo test de resistencia al que serán sometidos

Los grandes bancos pesan cada vez más sobre el sistema.los bancos por el nuevo organismo de vigilancia europeo EBA demuestre si sus finanzas verdaderamente están saneadas.

Hay 88 bancos, entre ellos, 13 bancos alemanes, que tendrán que ensayar un caso hipotético de recesión que se extiende hasta fines de 2012 y probar que no pierden demasiado capital propio.

A fines de junio se podrá contar con los resultados.

La primera prueba de resistencia, de acuerdo con expertos, no merece llevar ese nombre, ya que, hace un año, 91 instituciones bancarias no la aprobaron, pero sí lo hicieron los cuatro bancos que, poco tiempo después, llevaron a Irlanda al borde de la bancarrota.

Autor: Rolf Wenkel/ Cristina Papaleo
Editor: Enrique López Magallón

http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,14941048,00.html


"Right now we still don't know exactly what's hidden in the banks' balance sheets. We can only assume that because banks have been able to offload significant liabilities into so-called 'bad banks,' their balances are better off now than they were two years ago."

http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,14939720,00.html


"Wenn es die Idee war, als Krisenprävention die Anzahl der systemisch relevanten Institute herunterzufahren, dann ist das zumindest in Deutschland nicht gelungen", sagt Schrooten in ihrer Untersuchung.

http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,6479110,00.html

“The UK’s debt could deteriorate to a point that is inconsistent with an AAA rating”

MOODY’S has warned Chancellor George Osborne that the UK could lose its coveted AAA credit rating if his latest growth forecasts prove too optimistic.

Mr Osborne lowered his forecast for growth in gross domestic product – national output – this year and next year during Wednesday’s Budget, admitting that the recovery will be slower than thought until 2013.

This means the Conservative-led Coalition will need an economic rebound from 2013 onwards if it is to eliminate the Budget shortfall before the 2015 General Election.

However, the ratings agency cautioned that there was more chance that economic growth in Britain would lag behind, rather than exceed, the Chancellor’s predictions for 2013 onwards, thwarting his drive to cut the deficit.

Moody’s said: “Slower growth combined with weaker-than-expected fiscal consolidation could cause the UK’s debt metrics to deteriorate to a point that would be inconsistent with an AAA rating.”

Ratings agency Fitch made a similar statement on Wednesday.

Preserving Britain’s triple-A sovereign debt rating is a top economic priority for the coalition, which inherited a deficit greater than 10% of gross domestic product.

Mr Osborne’s fiscal plans are heavily constrained by forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility, an independent Government body that provides macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts.

http://www.heraldscotland.com/business/markets-economy/moody-s-issues-warning-about-uk-aaa-credit-rating-1.1092555

Ya le habían bajado la calificación a Japón, unas semanas antes del Terremoto, el Tsunami y la fuga radiactiva.

La cosa esta muy espesa.

La Segunda Guerra Civil “Americana”.

Frente Sindical.

KARL ROVE: Labor's Desperate Last Stand Is On Full Display After Wisconsin Protests, Ohio Battle
http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2011/03/24/karl-rove-desperation-labor-unions-display-wisconsin-protests-ohio-battle/#ixzz1HbS61U76


Ohio's Governor Moves Against Unions

The reform goes further than Wisconsin's.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704050204576218701704322310.html?mod=WSJ_newsreel_opinion


How To Read Karl Rove

http://www.tnr.com/blog/jonathan-chait/85692/how-read-karl-rove



Frente Recaudador GOP.

2012 Elections: Republican anxiety building over crop of candidates

http://www.presstv.ir/usdetail/171483.html



Frente Propaganda Virtual Sucia.

Ind. prosecutor urged fake attack, resigns

…"a good opportunity for what's called a 'false flag' operation."

"If you could employ an associate who pretends to be sympathetic to the unions' cause to physically attack you (or even use a firearm against you), you could discredit the unions," Lam said in the e-mail.

…………..

The e-mail was sent the same day another Indiana law enforcement official tweeted a suggestion that police "use live ammunition" against protesters in the Wisconsin Capitol.

That official, Jeffrey Cox, was fired from his position as deputy state attorney general.
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2011/03/24/Ind-prosecutor-urged-fake-attack-resigns/UPI-24231301013657/#ixzz1HbVjKULe


Wikipocrisy.org

http://wikipocrisy.org/



Frente del Deficit

It’s been called California’s other budget deficit.

And it certainly hasn’t had near the attention of the state’s $25.4 billion budget gap between revenue and spending commitments.
But it’s almost as dire.

California’s employer-paid Unemployment Insurance Fund is insolvent.

The fund had a deficit of $10.3 billion in 2010, a deficit that is growing to what the state projects will be a $13.4 billion hole this year.

….

Although California has by far the largest outstanding loan balance – more than double that of Michigan, the next closest state at $3.9 billion – it certainly is not alone.

As of March 21, in addition to California, 31 other states owed the federal government $35.5 billion.

Among states with multi-billion borrowings are New York at $3.6 billion, Pennsylvania at $3.5 billion, Illinois at $2.8 billion, North Carolina at $2.7 billion, Ohio at $2.5 billion, Florida at $2.2 billion, Indiana at $2.1 billion, New Jersey at $1.9 billion and Wisconsin at $1.6 billion.

Like California, for most states they’re suffering a double-whammy:

At the same time their unemployment insurance funds crater, so do their budgets.

California is one of 44 states and the District of Columbia projecting a budget shortfall for the fiscal year beginning July 1.

These shortfalls, as California is painfully aware, come on top of sizable budget holes in the current and previous fiscal years.

Nationwide in the fiscal year ending June 30, states posted a record $191 billion in cumulative budget shortfalls, according to a March 2011 report by the Washington, D.C. based Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.

http://www.capitolweekly.net/article.php?_c=zkykwiecmiluyk&xid=zky1ba0b2tdyr8&done=.zkykwiecmj8uyk


The state Financial Control Board warned Thursday that this year's proposed cuts to New York City services are just the beginning, and residents should expect deeper reductions in the coming years.

………..

The yearly report is prepared by the board's longtime staff of economists and analysts, and Sommer said he believes it is politically impartial.

But the findings did seem to bolster the agendas of at least two of the board's members: Bloomberg and Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who have argued that pension and benefit costs for government workers have become unsustainable.

The state and city comptrollers and three private citizens who are longtime members make up the rest of the board, which had veto power over the city budget following the fiscal crisis of the 1970s but now serves only an advisory role.

The city has said pension contributions, debt service, health care, court judgments and settlements are expected to grow almost 8 percent annually over the next five years, while other costs would grow less than 1 percent a year.

.........

The board's analysis projects a $5.7 billion city budget shortfall in the fiscal year starting July 1, 2012, rising to a shortfall of more than $6 billion two years later.

That's about $1 billion more than the mayor's projections.

Bloomberg has been pushing state legislators to give the city the right to negotiate cutbacks to pensions, which are currently the domain of the state government.

Gov. Andrew Cuomo is proposing several measures to cut what he calls an unsustainable level of spending on the state workforce of 170,000. Among his targets: spending on pensions and retiree health care.

http://online.wsj.com/article/AP8f68113c0696449f8eb184efbf755ad0.html


City Council votes to put off LAPD hiring

A three-month freeze is approved to help ease L.A.'s budget shortfall, but it reduces the number of sworn officers below the minimum the police chief says is necessary.

http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-la-budget-20110324,0,6372927.story?track=rss


The City Administrative Officer is projecting a budget deficit for the fiscal year beginning July 1, 2011 of $350 million.

However, this budget gap will most likely increase to $475 million due to a shortfall in projected revenue ($100 million per the Controller) and higher net pension contributions ($25 million).
This may be a low ball estimate as the City is pulling an Enron and “cooking the books.”

The City conveniently neglects to consider the costs associated with maintaining and repairing the City’s lunar cratered streets and its other infrastructure and with properly funding its two major pension plans, the Los Angeles City Employees Retirement System and the Fire & Police Pension Plans.

In the real world, the City’s budget deficit is north of $1 BILLION (23% of General Fund Revenues) when you factor in the real costs associated with our infrastructure (streets, sidewalks, street lights, parks, buildings, bridges, sewers, storm water systems, IT systems, etc.) and with the pension plans that are underfunded by $11.7 billion (64.6% funded) as of June 30,2011.

See “LA’s Billion Dollar Budget Gap” article.

http://citywatchla.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=4719


The Mayor’s Investor Presentation just confirms that the City has no clue on how to solve the looming financial crisis: chronic deficits, a Third World Infrastructure, and massive unfunded pension liabilities.

Even more frightening, there are no details on how to approach or even solve the problem.

It is no wonder that many consider the City a junk credit. And what is even more amazing is that Moody’s, S & P, and Fitch rate the City as an investment grade credit.

http://citywatchla.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=4535

jueves, 24 de marzo de 2011

Resiliencia y Peronismo, en base al articulo Andrés Malamud.


La segunda lección de la Argentina profunda es que peronistas y radicales se parecen pero no son iguales.


Los primeros, más maleables, se adaptan mejor a los cambios de época y son más exitosos para ganar y para gobernar.


Los segundos, más rígidos y de tiempos lentos, son austeros para las victorias y efímeros en el gobierno.


El peronismo se orienta hacia el poder, el radicalismo hacia su limitación.


La doctrina de los primeros podría resumirse como “la deslealtad es mala, pero el llano es peor”; la de los segundos, “que se pierdan mil gobiernos pero que no se pierda la interna”.


La supervivencia del peronismo se debe a sus propios méritos: la capacidad camaleónica de reinventarse todas las décadas.


La del radicalismo depende más de factores externos: las reglas electorales, que penalizan a las nuevas fuerzas, y la persistencia de las identidades sociales no peronistas, que terminan concentrándose en el partido focal.


Estas identidades son principalmente urbanas, de clase media y con mayores niveles de educación: por eso, hoy el radicalismo alinea sólo cuatro gobernadores pero administra diez capitales de provincia, tantas como el peronismo.


La inserción radical en las ciudades, más modernas y cosmopolitas que los suburbios, ha frenado la declinación partidaria pero no asegura la perpetuidad.


La tercera lección es, quizás, la más candente: cuando el radicalismo mengua, su lugar no es ocupado por un tercero sino por el peronismo.


Dividirse y reagruparse es una operación estratégica simple para un partido tan dúctil, tanto como alinearse detrás de quien haya obtenido o garantice victorias.


En el caso improbable de que Macri ganara las próximas elecciones presidenciales, por ejemplo, su base de sustentación parlamentaria sería la misma que acompañó a diez años de menemismo y ocho de kirchnerismo.


Teniendo en cuenta que el PRO no posee más que una docena de diputados y ningún senador, la flexibilidad peronista asoma como factor de gobernabilidad.


Que no es sinónimo de buen gobierno, pero ése es otro tema”.

http://www.clarin.com/opinion/bipartidismo-asimetrico_0_449355149.html


Otra vez sopa; Profesionales “dominados” por sus pre-juicios, recurriendo a categorías de descalificación social, para “justificar” su “cientificismo”.

Como comente en el Blog de Abel, hacer clic aquí; el peronismo puede ser caracterizado “científicamente” como un CAS (Complex Adaptive Systems).

http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sistema_adaptativo_complejo

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Complex_adaptive_system

Los partidos, y/o movimientos sociales y políticos, son considerados como Sistemas Complejos en si mismos.

Ahora bien; la “maleabilidad”, “adaptabilidad”, “capacidad camaleónica”, “reinventarse”, “ductilidad”, “flexibilidad”, etc.; están relacionados directamente con la “supervivencia”.

Y eso se llama “Resiliencia”:

“Resiliencia (del verbo latino resilio, resilire: ‘saltar hacia atrás, rebotar’) depende del contexto en que se tome:

-En ingeniería, resiliencia (ingeniería) es una magnitud que cuantifica la cantidad de energía por unidad de volumen que almacena unmaterial al deformarse elásticamente debido a una tensión aplicada.

-La resiliencia (en ecología) se refiere a la capacidad de las comunidades de absorber (en el sentido de soportar) perturbaciones;

-La resiliencia (en psicología) se refiere a la capacidad de las personas o grupos para sobreponerse al dolor emocional para continuar con su vida.

Se ha incluido la palabra Resiliencia en los avances de la 23ª edición del Diccionario de la lengua española de la Real Academia Española.

http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resiliencia

http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resiliencia_(ecolog%C3%ADa)

http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resiliencia_(psicolog%C3%ADa)

Esa “capacidad” de “absorber” y “recuperarse” de los traumas, los shocks, los desastres, etc.; solía calificarse como Resistencia.

Como este último término tiene un contenido “emocional” de rechazo al cambio; en USA y Europa se lo traslado a la Teoría y Praxis Política.


“Growing Support in Washington

Prominent members in Congress are embracing resilience.

The Chairman of the Homeland Security Committee of the House of Representatives, Bennie Thompson (D-MS) declared May 2008 “Resilience Month” as the committee and its subcommittees held a series of hearings to examine the issue.[11][12]

President Obama[13] and the Department of Homeland Security[14][15] have also made resilience an integral component of homeland security policy.

The Quadrennial Homeland Security Review, released by the Department of Homeland Security in February 2010, made resilience a prominent theme and one of the core missions of the U.S. homeland security enterprise.[16]

Making Resilience Reality

More scholarship is turning towards examining how to achieve resilience.

Some have identified the four facets of resilience as preparedness, protection, response and recovery.[17]

Other countries, such as the United Kingdom and Australia, are adopting the resilience concept.[18][19]

Measuring Resilience

As part of the Canterbury University Resilient Organisations programme, ResOrgs have developed a tool for benchmarking the Resilience of Organisations. [20]

References

1. ^ Resilience. Wiktionary.

2. ^ Testimony of Robert W. Kelly before the House Subcommittee on Border, Maritime and Global Counterterrorism. Reform Institute. May 7, 2008.

3. ^ Stephen Flynn. America the Vulnerable: How Our Government is Failing to Protect Us from Terrorism. A CFR book. HarperCollins. June 2004.

4. ^ Yossi Sheffi. The Resilient Enterprise: Overcoming Vulnerability for Competitive Enterprise. MIT Press. October 2005.

5. ^ Transform. The Resilient Economy. Integrating Competitiveness and Security. Council on Competitiveness. July 2007.

6. ^ Chain of Perils: Hardening the Global Supply Chain and Strengthening America's Resilience. Reform Institute. March 2008.

7. ^ The Smart Alternative: Securing and Strengthening Our Nation's Vulnerable Electric Grid. Reform Institute. June 2008.

8. ^ Building A Resilient Nation: Enhancing Security, Ensuring a Strong Economy. Reform Institute. October 2008.

9. ^ Katherine McIntire Peters. Government Urged to Focus on Resilience in Homeland Security. Government Executive. October 1, 2008

10. ^ James Jay Carafano. Risk and Resiliency: Developing the Right Homeland Security Public Policies for the Post-Bush Era. Testimony Before the Subcommittee on Transportation Security and Infrastructure Protection. Committee on Homeland Security. United States House of Representatives. June 24, 2008.

11. ^ 'Resilience' Blooming Into Its Own. Homeland Security Watch. May 1, 2008.

12. ^ Committee Leaders Pleased With Month of Hearings on Resiliency. CQ Homeland Security. May 23, 2008.

13. ^ Homeland Security. whitehouse.gov. Retrieved 2009-04-05.

14. ^ One Team, One Mission, Securing Our Homeland. U.S. Department of Homeland Security Strategic Plan. Fiscal Years 2008-2013. U.S. Department of Homeland Security. September 2008.

15. ^ Top Ten Challenges Facing the Next Secretary of Homeland Security. Homeland Security Advisory Council. September 2008.

16. ^ Quadrennial Homeland Security Review Report: A Strategic Framework for a Secure Homeland. U.S. Dept. of Homeland Security. February 2010.

17. ^ Building A Resilient Nation: Enhancing Security, Ensuring a Strong Economy report. Reform Institute. October 2008.

18. ^ Resilient Nation. Demos. April 2009.

19. ^ Improving Disaster Resilience. Australian Government. May 12, 2009.

20. ^ Resilient Organisations. March 22 2011.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resilience_(organizational)



Resumen; "Mit der Dummheit kämpfen Götter selbst vergebens”; "Contra la estupidez, los mismos dioses luchan en vano".

No soy un dios, ni siquiera un idóneo; solo estoy podrido frente a tanta estupidez, mal intencionada.

Donde el “Consenso” del Establishment y la Izquierda Menemista es “colocarnos” donde no queremos estar.

Porque el amarillo descalificador, sumado al verde autocomplaciente de la Lumpen pequeñoburguesa, da como resultado el rojo del Establishment.

Eso es lo que implica el artículo, ni más ni menos.