Judgment Day was coming — just like it was for the Delaware River Port Authority, the Pennsylvania school system, the cities of Detroit, Chicago, Oakland and Los Angeles, the states of Connecticut and Mississippi, the city of Milan and nearly 500 other municipalities in Italy, the country of Greece, and God knows who else.
All of these places are now reeling under the weight of similarly elaborate and ill-advised swaps — and if what happened in Jefferson County is any guide, hoo boy.
Because when the shit hit the fan in Birmingham, it really hit the fan.
For Jefferson County, the deal blew up in early 2008, when a dizzying array of penalties and other fine-print poison worked into the swap contracts started to kick in.
The trouble began with the housing crash, which took down the insurance companies that had underwritten the county's bonds.
That rendered the county's insurance worthless, triggering clauses in its swap contracts that required it to pay off more than $800 million of its debt in only four years, rather than 40.
That, in turn, scared off private lenders, who were no longer interested in bidding on the county's bonds.
The banks were forced to make up the difference — a service for which they charged enormous penalties.
It was as if the county had missed a payment on its credit card and woke up the next morning to find its annual percentage rate jacked up to a million percent.
Between 2008 and 2009, the annual payment on Jefferson County's debt jumped from $53 million to a whopping $636 million.
………………………………..
And here's the kicker.
Last year, when Jefferson County, staggered by the weight of its penalties, was unable to make its swap payments to JP Morgan, the bank canceled the deal.
That triggered one-time "termination fees" of — yes, you read this right — $647 million.
That was money the county would owe no matter what happened with the rest of its debt, even if bondholders decided to forgive and forget every dime the county had borrowed.
It was like the herpes simplex of loans — debt that does not go away, ever, for as long as you live.
On a sewer project that was originally supposed to cost $250 million, the county now owed a total of $1.28 billion just in interest and fees on the debt.
Imagine paying $250,000 a year on a car you purchased for $50,000, and that's roughly where Jefferson County stood at the end of last year.
Last November, the SEC charged JP Morgan with fraud and canceled the $647 million in termination fees.
The bank agreed to pay a $25 million fine and fork over $50 million to assist displaced workers in Jefferson County.
So far, the county has managed to avoid bankruptcy, but the sewer fiasco had downgraded its credit rating, triggering payments on other outstanding loans and pushing Birmingham toward the status of an African debtor state.
For the next generation, the county will be in a constant fight to collect enough taxes just to pay off its debt, which now totals $4,800 per resident.
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/32906678/looting_main_street/print
Traducción automática; hacer clic aquí.
Gracias al amigo Ayj, que me hizo llegar el link de Rolling Stone, tenemos datos frescos de
Ahora bien, ¿Se puede hacer un paralelismo con “Regreso” de
Si existe, o existio, “Just tell us how much”; es una tarea obligatoria de los legisladores opositores.
Pero, hay que tomar en cuenta dos datos externos, donde el papel de
1/ El “modelo” argentino de resolver la deuda, el Argentinator financiero, es un precedente que se esta demostrando viable; por el solo hecho de que AUN estamos aquí.
Ya sabemos que para los anglosajones, utilitarios de alma, el precedente importa.
No será lo soñado por
2/ “La incertidumbre de
Es una de las frases de los Wallstreet Boy’s en el 1º G20; y como reconoció
En poco tiempo, cuando los INDEK de las calificadoras de riesgo se blanqueen, no seria de extrañar que nos mejoren la calificación.
Permitiendo así, jugosas “comisiones” sobre los prestamos voluntarios.
Sumando 1 (lo útil) y 2 (lo placentero); se “comprende" el “gesto” de
Pero todavía falta lo mejor;
3/ La reivindicación del Patacón bonaerense por los subnacionales del 1ª Mundo; deuda muchísimo mas barata, por el simple hecho de que no genera “comisiones” bancarias y de brokers; y además porque al permitir pagar impuestos a valor nominal, se termina por ahorrase los intereses, sean fijos o variables.
¿Un delirio?, jejejejeje, la necesidad financiera tiene cara de hereje; sino pregúntele a GWB, Paulson, Bernanke y cia; y SU salvataje del Sistema Financiero Global.
El “Moral Hazard” fue el primer lastre que tiraron por la borda.
No se pierdan los próximos capítulos de este atrapante folletín.
PD, para quienes no sepan de que trata el “caso Milán”, un link de BusinessWeek, hacer clic aquí.
March 17 (Bloomberg) -- Deutsche Bank AG, JPMorgan Chase & Co., UBS AG and Hypo Real Estate Holding AG’s Depfa Bank Plc unit were charged with fraud linked to the sale of derivatives to the City of Milan.
Judge Simone Luerti scheduled the trial of the four firms, 11 bankers and two former city officials for May 6, Prosecutor Alfredo Robledo said after a hearing in Milan today.
The banks allegedly misled the city over swaps that adjusted interest payments on 1.7 billion euros ($2.3 billion) of bonds sold in 2005.
419 comentarios:
1 – 200 de 419 Más recientes› Más nuevas»“La incertidumbre de la Argentina no es si puede pagar, o no, de hecho puede hacerlo; sino, SI tiene la voluntad de pagar”
Es una de las frases de los Wallstreet Boy’s en el 1º G20; y como reconoció la Secretaria de Estado HRC, en su ultima visita a la Argentina, nuestros números son mucho mejores que los de la Superpotencia.
--
ah, entonces pagar la deuda extrena es una desición política, no porque asi lo quiso el destino!
de esta forma, impugnarla en sus tramos delictuosos también lo es.
para los que gustan de la mesa popular aclaro que esto último es mucho más pucherezco, como decimos en cba, que macrobiótico.
Porque sera que el Sr Warren Buffet habra decidido que el unico negocio que era rentable dentro del segmento monolines era muni bonds ? Sera una metida de pata mas de Buffet, o habra estimado que "la gran argentina" no era la salida para los US Counties ?
..........................
No se pierda esta apasionante serie por su canal favorito!
Corto, la diferencia estimado no es de cualitas, es de quentum.
Lo que busca el mundo es cómo hace para meterse en los grises. Y Argentina fue es el camino desde 2003. Y sino preguntéle al correctamnente asesorado amigo Correa de donde tomó la inspiración que ejecutó con todo el tiempo del mundo.
Eso sí, nada de esto hubiera sido posible sin el PAGO TOTAL NOMINAL Y AL CONTADO que se le hizo al FMI en 2005, para sacárnoslo de encima. Medida que Tumini y secuaces tuvieron el buen criterio de aplaudir en su momento.
Así su nombre, así la mirada.
anonimo
en usa los bonos municipales no pagan impuestos en general es una forma barata de guardar liquidez y que no te abrochen
joe,
I think you're missing the point.
When you can lose all your money, taxes are the last think you're thinking about.
fede su quentum se podría trasformar, cruzando el rubicon, en alea jacta est! si optasemos por la experiencia propia, nacional y popular, como quería el general, en vez de pagar deuda para nuevamente tomar deuda. usted, como monserratense estudioso del latín debería saberlo. pero bueh, siempre gris, tan gris, asi estamos...
pd/tumini???
La Cuestión de Fondo es la Distribución,…de las perdidas.
“La incertidumbre de la Argentina no es si puede pagar, o no, de hecho puede hacerlo; sino, SI tiene la voluntad de pagar”
Es una de las frases de los Wallstreet Boy’s en el 1º G20; y como reconoció la Secretaria de Estado HRC, en su ultima visita a la Argentina, nuestros números son mucho mejores que los de la Superpotencia.
--
ah, entonces pagar la deuda extrena es una desición política, no porque asi lo quiso el destino!
de esta forma, impugnarla en sus tramos delictuosos también lo es.
para los que gustan de la mesa popular aclaro que esto último es mucho más pucherezco, como decimos en cba, que macrobiótico.
Corto
El problema del estimado comentarista es que aun no asumió un viejo apotegma oligárquico; Privatizar las Ganancias y Socializar las Pérdidas.
El primer punto, la Privatización de la Ganancias, es el fundamento del Estado de Bienestar; con sus típicas pujas salariales a la sueca.
Como hay, el goteo es un reaseguro frente a la confrontación.
El problema irresoluble es el segundo, la Socialización de las Perdidas; donde las diferencias suelen terminar en Represión, alentadas por las Masas de Maniobras cautivas del Sentido Común Hegemónico.
El caso de Argentina 2001, como prototipo del la actual Crisis Global, es COMO se evito el “cuanto peor, mejor”.
Éramos un Estado Fallido, donde no solo se proponía la Intervención del MECON; sino que se especulaba con la balcanización territorial y los cascos azules de la OEA.
Se que los Militantes yogurt fantasean sobre la Acción Revolucionaria, “Piquetes y Cacerolas, la lucha es una sola”; como si fuera un video juego en red, donde el game over solo precisa de un reinicio.
El problema de la Vida Concreta es que las “bajas” son irrecuperables, quien esta muerto, esta muerto.
El tiempo es una variable ineludible, que no se supera “gastando sangre”; por cada Vietnam tenemos una docena de Derrotas, igual sucede con el caso cubano, ¿o tengo que recordarlo?
Yo no se si el canje es útil, o no; desde ya planteo que no me gusta.
Pero, hacer prevalecer los gustos personales, sobre las condiciones objetivas; como en todas las cuestiones vitales, es puro infantilismo pequeño burgués.
¿Alguien puede creer que es casual el arrastre de Carrio, nuestra “profeta desarmada”?
Ahora bien, como la Argentina esta desfasada con el resto del mundo; donde no se terminaron de “contabilizar” las perdidas; y todos nosotros pudimos armar un canuto, a imagen y semejanza del Estado.
NUESTRA puja es doble; hacia adentro, como se distribuyen los excedentes, lo que el Establishment y sus voceros llaman Inflación.
Y hacia fuera; como evitamos que nos endosen los costos de la distribución de las perdidas; sea por medio de la “inflación” latente, o mediante la deflación y recesión; como sucedió luego del shock petrolero de los 70, y las crisis de los 80.
Un abrazo
estimado manolo
Si, quizás lo de cruzar el Rubicón no fue la frase correcta para la situación, me tentó el latinismo de fede.
A esta altura no fantaseo con delirios revolucionarios y acuerdo plenamente sobre calcular costos y beneficios, dada la experiencia histórica, a la hora de tomar decisiones de Estado.
Ninguna patrulla perdida del desierto clava la bandera.
pero algunos compañeros aportan su subjetividad para analizar contextos que recomiendan o no tomar es medidas. Por eso, lo que no es factible en un momento (es un delirio guevarista, la caballería checa, blabla), pasa a ser una audaz y justiciera medida en otro, sin observarse un cambio de relación de fuerza determinante entre un momento y otro. Hasta incluso cuando la esa relación se ha tornado más desfavorable pudimos admirarnos de que este gobierno tomase resoluciones ante no esperables. Tal es el caso de la nacionalización de AFJP o la ley de medios.
Si nos retrotraemos a diciembre de 2005, cuando Néstor renovó las licencias de los medios, plantar como ya se hacía entonces una nueva ley de radiodifusión era una troskeada. Ni que decir del ingreso universal por hijo planteado por el Movimiento de chicos del Pueblo y la CTA en diciembre de 2008. Tiempo después el decreto oficial, aun con desmejoras, cumplió esa medida por todos aplaudida.
También podemos hablar del seguro de desempleo planteado por la Frenapo en diciembre de 2001, implementado por Duhalde tiempo después, que delaruistas y establishment pueden haber considerado un sinsentido castrista o chavista para agiornar.
(sigo)
estimado manolo
Si, quizás lo de cruzar el Rubicón no fue la frase correcta para la situación, me tentó el latinismo de fede.
A esta altura no fantaseo con delirios revolucionarios y acuerdo plenamente sobre calcular costos y beneficios, dada la experiencia histórica, a la hora de tomar decisiones de Estado.
Ninguna patrulla perdida del desierto clava la bandera.
pero algunos compañeros aportan su subjetividad para analizar contextos que recomiendan o no tomar es medidas. Por eso, lo que no es factible en un momento (es un delirio guevarista, la caballería checa, blabla), pasa a ser una audaz y justiciera medida en otro, sin observarse un cambio de relación de fuerza determinante entre un momento y otro. Hasta incluso cuando la esa relación se ha tornado más desfavorable pudimos admirarnos de que este gobierno tomase resoluciones ante no esperables. Tal es el caso de la nacionalización de AFJP o la ley de medios.
Si nos retrotraemos a diciembre de 2005, cuando Néstor renovó las licencias de los medios, plantar como ya se hacía entonces una nueva ley de radiodifusión era una troskeada. Ni que decir del ingreso universal por hijo planteado por el Movimiento de chicos del Pueblo y la CTA en diciembre de 2008. Tiempo después el decreto oficial, aun con desmejoras, cumplió esa medida por todos aplaudida.
También podemos hablar del seguro de desempleo planteado por la Frenapo en diciembre de 2001, implementado por Duhalde tiempo después, que delaruistas y establishment pueden haber considerado un sinsentido castrista o chavista para agiornar.
(sigo)
nadie quiere renunciar al goteo. No es cierto. Pero es indudable que hay que abrir un poquito mas la canilla porque la deuda interna que tiene la clase política con la sociedad no da para esperar mucho, de hecho es inmoral que continúe esa deuda con la capacidad de generar riqueza que tiene nuestro país.
Tampoco es cierto que las condiciones sean adversas para impugnar la deuda. usted bien describe periódicamente la crisis de capitalismo financiero internacional, y su referencia a los wall street boy apunta en el mismo sentido.
sucede con el pago de la deuda, y el dichoso canje que la deuda total a la fecha de dicho canje en 2005 era de 191.200 millones de dólares y se renegociaron 82.000 millones; de éstos, fueron rescatados 62.000 millones (el resto está en manos de “fondos buitres”) y al haberse emitido bonos en canje por 35.000 millones, la diferencia real entre las dos últimas cifras es de 27.000 millones de dólares. Sobre un total de 191.200 millones, la quita de 27.000 millones es un 15% y no 70%. La deuda quedó en 164.000 millones de dólares y desde entonces se pagaron unos 40.000 millones; no obstante, hoy supera los 176.000 millones. El resto parece chamuyo.
Entonces, para no analizar en serio la factibilidad de la una medida como la impugnación de la deuda ilegítima, se la tilda de energúmena. pero porque en realidad se quiere gambetear el debate político. Debate político que usted no esquiva, tal como lo plantea arriba, pero que pareciera trapo con piojos para el gobierno.
Ganaríamos más de lo que perderíamos en términos de beneficios para el país si impugnamos los tramos delictuosos de la deuda. Por el contexto externo y porque este gobierno tiene fuerza relativa, para reunir mayorías tal como lo hizo a la hora de plantear la ley de medios en el congreso.
Por otro lado, tampoco acuerdo con que la burocracia estatal esté tan despedazada como parece. Cuando los sectores del Estado tienen conducción política y una idea a dónde ir los resultados son buenos. El anses ha podido absorber la demanda por le ingreso universal; el Pami también pudo absorber la demanda de los nuevos jubilados a partir de la implementación de la jubilación para todos; la AFIP funciona como ente recaudador, los números de las recaudaciones de esta gestión así lo demuestran. Claro, hay que mejorar infraestructura y pagar buenos sueldos. Por eso un trabajador del Anses o Pami, con 10 años de antigüedad, está levantando de 8 lucas para arriba. Y los de la AFIP más aun. En estos casos, este gobierno tuvo voluntad política porque le interesaba que esas reparticiones funcionan bien. Y es por los mandos medios, más que por los gerentes, que la cosa funciona.
¿Acaso volcar guita en fondos de desarrollo, para promover el crecimiento de los sectores más golpeados por el sistema actual (los que laburamos para la diaria y los que galguean las changas, no me refiero a los chicos de ciencias sociales), dando crédito blando y barato, construyendo viviendas, creando una red ferroviaria que baje costos de transporte, pagando un 82% real, recreando, en el caso cordobés, el polo metalúrgico ya que compraron la Fábrica de Aviones, no es un elemento válido resolver favorablemente esa doble puja que usted bien describe entre los excedentes de adentro y el corto de chorro de inversiones de afuera?
Tanto en el '75 como después de la crisis de la deuda se tomaron caminos distintos. además que entonces el capitalismo financiero esta en pleno auge.
Usted puede decir desde su lugar que no están dadas las condiciones y que es trosko. Yo sólo señalo que el gobierno no lo hace porque no les interesa el camino del desarrollo autónomo, tiene otro.
Son decisiones, como dice Miguel Angel Russo.
Saludo fraterno
Pd/ me quedo con la Balada del Mar Salado
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